Wimbledon Day 5 preview: Raducanu takes her shot against Sabalenka

WIMBLEDON -- It’s only the third round, but on Friday the atmosphere on Centre Court will be absolutely unhinged when Great Britain’s Emma Raducanu takes on No. 1-ranked Aryna Sabalenka.

It’s a perfect storm, with the cherished local favorite on home turf, backed by avid, sometimes rabid fans, opposite the best player in the world.

Raducanu, the resurgent 2021 US Open champion, took down 2023 Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova 6-3, 6-3 to get here. Can she do it again? Can she knock out the three-time Grand Slam winner, the definitive favorite to win the title here?

As the headline in The Times put it, “Hype gives way to hope.” BBC analyst Tracy Austin thinks it’s possible.

Wimbledon: Scores | Order of play | Draws

“That was the best I’ve seen her play since the [2021] US Open,” Austin said. “It was a tactical masterclass. There are things that Emma can do, if she plays as well as she did today. I would say she has a chance.”

Raducanu, who was nearly giddy in her on-court interview, might agree. 

“That was one of the best matches I’ve played in a long time,” she said, “which I’m very proud of. At the same time, I didn’t feel like I was doing anything outrageous, which gives me a lot of confidence. I think I was just doing the basics very, very well.”

Grass is unpredictable, but already this year’s tournament has been mind-boggling with four of the Top 5 women’s seeds departing in the first three days. Only one of the eight matches from the top half of the draw features two seeded players.

We break down Friday’s best:

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. Emma Raducanu

Head-to-head:1-0, Sabalenka, with a 6-3, 7-5 third-round win last year at Indian Wells.

Sabalenka’s straight-sets, second-round victory over Marie Bouzkova was clinically complete. Sabalenka hit 40 winners, with only 18 unforced errors, won 31 of 35 first-serve points and was 27-for-34 at net. That, as they say, is filling up the stat sheet.

Oh, one more: This year Sabalenka is a remarkable 14-1 in tiebreaks. Raducanu fully understands what she’s up against.

“Aryna is No. 1 in the world, been so dominant in the women's game as of the last few years,” the 22-year-old told reporters. “I know it’s going to be a massive challenge. I’m going to have to play some really good tennis.

“I’m going to have to be aggressive but pick my moments and not kind of be overly. I think you can fall into that trap, too. I don’t think I’m going to go out there and outpower her, like, size-wise and power-wise. I think I’m going to have to try and be creative, as well.”

Raducanu did that against Vondrousova, playing some terrific defense and unloading when the opportunities emerged.

“Emma is playing much better tennis since last year, I have to say,” Sabalenka said. “She improved. You can see that she’s getting back on track. Facing British at Wimbledon, I’m not sure I prefer that. But she’s playing great tennis.”

History is working against Raducanu. This will be the 10^th time a British player has faced the World No. 1 at Wimbledon since the rankings began a half century ago. The only one to defy those long odds was Virginia Wade, who defeated Chris Evert in the semifinals on the way to the title.

No. 6 Madison Keys vs. Laura Siegemund

Head-to-head:1-1, both in 2016, with Keys prevailing in Charleston and Siegemund winning -- 6-3, 6-1 -- at Wimbledon.

Keys was a 6-4, 6-2 winner over Olga Danilovic, raising her stellar Wimbledon record to 27-10 (.730). She is a two-time quarterfinalist here.

Siegemund, meanwhile, was a 6-2, 6-3 winner over No. 29 Leylah Fernandez and is looking to advance to the third round here for the first time.

“She’s super crafty,” Keys said of Siegemund, “so I think grass highlights that for her, and I think kind of all of her tangibles become even more of a weapon. You just kind of know that you’re never really going to get the same ball twice. So if you go out looking for any sort of rhythm, you’re not going to find it. 

“I think just kind of knowing that going into the match is half the battle.”

Naomi Osaka vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

Head-to-head: 2-1, Osaka, most recently a 6-1, 6-2 first-round decision on the way to the title at the 2021 Australian Open.

Osaka was a 6-3, 6-2 winner over Katerina Siniakova, who had eliminated No. 2 seed Coco Gauff in the first round. She’s into the third round at Wimbledon for the first time in seven years.

“I think when you are young, you fear nothing, and that’s one of the really cool things about it,” Osaka said. “But with age fear kind of crept along and, I guess, paralyzed me in a way. Now I’m kind of just getting over that and trying to spread my wings on grass. 

“I think it is working, and I think I am moving pretty well. Yeah, I just hope that in years to come and hopefully this year I can do a lot better in this tournament.”

Pavlyuchenkova was a 7-6 (4), 6-4 winner over Ashlyn Krueger. She reached the semifinals in Eastbourne, the quarters here nine years ago and has a 17-15 record at the All England Club.

No. 30 Linda Noskova vs. Kamilla Rakhimova

Head-to-head: 0-0.

Both players are coming off encouraging efforts on grass. Noskova reached the semifinals in Bad Homburg, beating Donna Vekic and Mirra Andreeva along the way -- and took eventual winner Jessica Pegula to three sets in the semifinals. Noskova defeated Eva Lys 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 in the second round.

Rakhimova, meanwhile, came back to upset No. 4 seed Jasmine Paolini 4-6, 6-4, 6-4. Including qualifying, she won four straight matches in Eastbourne before falling to Pavlyuchenkova in the quarterfinals.

No. 13 Amada Anisimova vs. Dalma Galfi

Head-to-head: 0-0.

When Anisimova handled Renata Zarazua 6-4, 6-3 in the second round, it was her eighth win on grass this year in 10 matches. Playing at a career-high No. 12 in the PIF WTA Rankings, Anisimova is enjoying a career year. She won the title in Doha and has designs on at least matching her best Wimbledon effort, the quarterfinals in 2022.

Galfi upset No. 21 Beatriz Haddad Maia 7-6 (7), 6-1. A win here by the 26-year-old Hungarian would equal her greatest Grand Slam run, the third round three years ago.

No. 14 Elina Svitolina vs. No. 24 Elise Mertens

Head-to-head: 5-3, Svitolina, most recently a few weeks ago in a Bad Homburg first round match, 7-5, 6-4.

Svitolina is a two-time Wimbledon semifinalist, in 2019 and again in 2023 after returning from childbirth. Svitolina defeated qualifier Aliaksandra Sasnovich 6-2, 6-4, while Mertens was a 6-7 (5), 6-1, 6-2 winner over Ann Li. She’s made the Round of 16 here twice, in 2019 and 2022.